Off-Policy Evaluation of Probabilistic Identity Data in Lookalike Modeling

We evaluate the impact of probabilistically-constructed digital identity data collected from Sep. to Dec. 2017 (approx.), in the context of Lookalike-targeted campaigns. The backbone of this study is a large set of probabilistically-constructed "identities", represented as small bags of cookies and mobile ad identifiers with associated metadata, that are likely all owned by the same underlying user. The identity data allows to generate "identity-based", rather than "identifier-based", user models, giving a fuller picture of the interests of the users underlying the identifiers. We employ off-policy techniques to evaluate the potential of identity-powered lookalike models without incurring the risk of allowing untested models to direct large amounts of ad spend or the large cost of performing A/B tests. We add to historical work on off-policy evaluation by noting a significant type of "finite-sample bias" that occurs for studies combining modestly-sized datasets and evaluation metrics involving rare events (e.g., conversions). We illustrate this bias using a simulation study that later informs the handling of inverse propensity weights in our analyses on real data. We demonstrate significant lift in identity-powered lookalikes versus an identity-ignorant baseline: on average ~70% lift in conversion rate. This rises to factors of ~(4-32)x for identifiers having little data themselves, but that can be inferred to belong to users with substantial data to aggregate across identifiers. This implies that identity-powered user modeling is especially important in the context of identifiers having very short lifespans (i.e., frequently churned cookies). Our work motivates and informs the use of probabilistically-constructed identities in marketing. It also deepens the canon of examples in which off-policy learning has been employed to evaluate the complex systems of the internet economy.Comment: Accepted by WSDM 201

Applying an extended prototype willingness model to predict back seat safety belt use in China

The risk of injury and death in traffic accidents for passengers in the back and front seats can be reduced by utilizing safety belts. However, passengers use back seatbelts far less frequently than those in the front. More investigation is therefore required into the psychological constructs that affect individuals\u27 attitudes toward using back seat belts. In this study, four models were used to analyze individual intentions and actual back seat belt use: the standard theory of planned behavior (TPB); the standard prototype willingness model (PWM); a model that integrates the TPB and PWM constructs; and a model that integrates the TPB construct, PWM constructs, descriptive norms and perceived law enforcement. The results showed that the standard PWM has much more explanatory power than the standard TPB in explaining the variance in behavioral intention and behavior. Incorporating perceived behavioral control (PBC) into the standard PWM did not improve the model fit considerably, while incorporating descriptive norms and perceived law enforcement moderately improved the model fit. Attitude greatly impacted behavioral intention and the use of back seat belts, followed by perceived law enforcement and descriptive norms, while subjective norms, prototype favorability, prototype similarity and PBC had no significant effect

Advancing Android Activity Recognition Service with Markov Smoother: Practical Solutions

Common use of smartphones is a compelling reason for performing activity recognition with on-board sensors as it is more practical than other approaches, such as wearable sensors and augmented environments. Many solutions have been proposed by academia, but practical use is limited to experimental settings. Ad hoc solutions exist with different degrees in recognition accuracy and efficiency. To ease the development of activity recognition for the mobile application eco-system, Google released an activity recognition service on their Android platform. In this paper, we present a systematic evaluation of this activity recognition service and share the lesson learnt. Through our experiments, we identified scenarios in which the recognition accuracy was barely acceptable. We analyze the cause of the inaccuracy and propose four practical and light-weight solutions to significantly improve the recognition accuracy and efficiency. Our evaluation confirmed the improvement. As a contribution, we released the proposed solutions as open-source projects for developers who want to incorporate activity recognition into their applications

Influence of Source Credibility on Consumer Acceptance of Genetically Modified Foods in China

This paper examines the reasoning mechanism behind the consumer acceptance of genetically modified foods (GMFs) in China, and investigates influence of source credibility on consumer acceptance of GMFs. Based on the original Persuasion Model—which was developed by Carl Hovland, an American psychologist and pioneer in the study of communication and its effect on attitudes and beliefs—we conducted a survey using multistage sampling from 1167 urban residents, which were proportionally selected from six cities in three economic regions (south, central, and north) in the Jiangsu province through face to face interviews. Mixed-process regression that could correct endogeneity and ordered probit model were used to test the impact of source credibility on consumers’ acceptance of GMFs. Our major finding was that consumer acceptance of GMFs is affected by such factors as information source credibility, general attitudes, gender, and education levels. The reliability of biotechnology research institutes, government offices devoted to management of GM organisms (GMOs), and GMO technological experts have expedited urban consumer acceptance of GM soybean oil. However, public acceptance can also decrease as faith in the environmental organization. We also found that ignorance of the endogeneity of above mentioned source significantly undervalued its effect on consumers’ acceptance. Moreover, the remaining three sources (non-GMO experts, food companies, and anonymous information found on the Internet) had almost no effect on consumer acceptance. Surprisingly, the more educated people in our survey were more skeptical towards GMFs. Our results contribute to the behavioral literature on consumer attitudes toward GMFs by developing a reasoning mechanism determining consumer acceptance of GMFs. Particularly, this paper quantitatively studied the influence of different source credibility on consumer acceptance of GMFs by using mixed-process regression to correct endogeneity in information sources, while taking into consideration of information asymmetry and specific preference in the use of information sources

Interaction-Driven Active 3D Reconstruction with Object Interiors

We introduce an active 3D reconstruction method which integrates visual perception, robot-object interaction, and 3D scanning to recover both the exterior and interior, i.e., unexposed, geometries of a target 3D object. Unlike other works in active vision which focus on optimizing camera viewpoints to better investigate the environment, the primary feature of our reconstruction is an analysis of the interactability of various parts of the target object and the ensuing part manipulation by a robot to enable scanning of occluded regions. As a result, an understanding of part articulations of the target object is obtained on top of complete geometry acquisition. Our method operates fully automatically by a Fetch robot with built-in RGBD sensors. It iterates between interaction analysis and interaction-driven reconstruction, scanning and reconstructing detected moveable parts one at a time, where both the articulated part detection and mesh reconstruction are carried out by neural networks. In the final step, all the remaining, non-articulated parts, including all the interior structures that had been exposed by prior part manipulations and subsequently scanned, are reconstructed to complete the acquisition. We demonstrate the performance of our method via qualitative and quantitative evaluation, ablation studies, comparisons to alternatives, as well as experiments in a real environment.Comment: Accepted to SIGGRAPH Asia 2023, project page at https://vcc.tech/research/2023/InterReco